One point of clarification - USTR Greer was asked about rare earth export restrictions on his return from Geneva and said “Yep, the Chinese have agreed to remove those countermeasures. If they don’t do those things, we’re going to be back in a different situation. But I expect they’ll remove them.” The lack of flow of rare earths to the US is going to become a bone of contention soon.
Also, while I don't doubt your analysis that we are likely to encounter significant supply chain problems resulting from shortage, given the lack of progress in addressing this well known vulnerability since 2010, perhaps having a crisis is the only way to generate action to address it.
Thanks Brian. Looks like there is some attempt between MOFCOM and USTR to negotiate on an initial “white list” of US companies, likely EV and semiconductor firms, that may get licenses in the near term. US defense industrial and military end users will not get licenses, that ship has almost certainly sailed. If the US pushes the export control button again, Beijing can pull back from a notional white list, depending on the overall state of the bilateral relationship. Recreating supply chains for REEs and magnets for defense industrial applications will take 100s of billions, at least 5 years, and a lot of changes to US education system and permitting, etc…
One point of clarification - USTR Greer was asked about rare earth export restrictions on his return from Geneva and said “Yep, the Chinese have agreed to remove those countermeasures. If they don’t do those things, we’re going to be back in a different situation. But I expect they’ll remove them.” The lack of flow of rare earths to the US is going to become a bone of contention soon.
Also, while I don't doubt your analysis that we are likely to encounter significant supply chain problems resulting from shortage, given the lack of progress in addressing this well known vulnerability since 2010, perhaps having a crisis is the only way to generate action to address it.
Thanks Brian. Looks like there is some attempt between MOFCOM and USTR to negotiate on an initial “white list” of US companies, likely EV and semiconductor firms, that may get licenses in the near term. US defense industrial and military end users will not get licenses, that ship has almost certainly sailed. If the US pushes the export control button again, Beijing can pull back from a notional white list, depending on the overall state of the bilateral relationship. Recreating supply chains for REEs and magnets for defense industrial applications will take 100s of billions, at least 5 years, and a lot of changes to US education system and permitting, etc…